Granger causality analysis based on chinas inflation analysis - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 3 Words: 1019 Downloads: 3 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Analytical essay Tags: China Essay Inflation Essay Did you like this example? Financial sector in the formation of the reasons for inflation has been, and there is no consensus. Keynesian view that the real economy is highly unstable, the labor market is the root of inflation, and thus derive the famous Phillips curve, monetary school believes that inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon, while the market is essentially stable, no need for government to artificially adjust. The use of macroeconomic policies, inflation, structure, school tried to economic productivity of various departments to explain the long-term trends are inconsistent prices and the resulting inflation. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Granger causality analysis based on chinas inflation analysis" essay for you Create order These three schools of thought in theory, to some extent explains the causes of inflation, but can not fully explain the formation mechanism of inflation, and given the corresponding policy recommendations. Inflation is a comprehensive economic phenomenon, rather than single-factor effects. In this paper, econometric methods, the use of ADF model (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) and the Granger causality test (Granger Causality Tests) model, from the GOP Growth, M1 Growth, Consume Growth, Wage Growth, Exchange Rate these economic indicators Inflation Rate in effect to analyze the causes of inflation. 2. Analysis In the time-series case, the two economic variables X, Y Granger causality between the defined as: if the variable contains the X, Y under the conditions of the past information on the predictive variable Y is superior to solely focus from the Ys past information to forecast Y effect that the variable X helps to explain the future change in the variable Y is considered a variable X is caused by the variable Y Granger causes. Granger causality test is essentially testing whether a variable lag variables other variables could be introduced into the equation. If a variable is subject to the delayed impact of other variables, claimed that they have Granger causality.   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Right and two time series, based on Grangers definition, if a relative value only to predict the past when the past values can be used to improve forecasts. That is, if the past value can statistically improve the forecast is said to cause and effect in the. Granger causality test can not only long-term relationship between the variables tested, but also on the short-term relationship between the variables tested. There is no unit root for the two stationary series, can be defined the following equation:  ¼Ãƒâ€¹Ã¢â‚¬  1 ¼Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ° Test from the causal relationship, namely, the zero hypothesis testing. Original hypothesis; alternative hypothesis. If you accept the original hypothesis, then there is no causal relationship from to; On the contrary, then there exists a causal relationship from to. Granger causality test for a pre-condition that the time series must be stationary, or may be a false returns. Therefore, before carrying out Granger causality test first response to the various indicators of stability of time series to conduct a unit root test (unit root test). ADF tests were used to smooth sequences of various indicators to conduct a unit root test. 3. Empirical Analysis Paper selected 1980-2007 Year Inflation Rate (IR), G OP Growth (GOP), M1 Growth (M1), Consume Growth (CONSUME), Wage Growth (W), Exchange Rate (EX) 6 variables, 28 samples the number of the study. Eviews6.0 calculated using the software. Inflation Rate (IR), GOP Growth (GOP), M1 Growth (M1), Consume Growth (CONSUME), Wage Growth (W), Exchange Rate (EX) 6 variables of the line graph the figure below. Figure 1 3.1 Unit root test In time series analysis, to avoid spurious regression phenomenon, in doing causality analysis, the need for variable ADF test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test). Test results shown in Table 1: TABLE 1 Unit root test Variable Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values 1% level 5% level 10% level IR -3.180069 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 I(0) GOP -3.254578 -3.737853 -2.991878 -2.635542 I(0) M1 -4.337122 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 I(0) CONSUME -5.318454 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 I(0) W 0.651459 -3.769597 -3.004861 -2.642242 I(1) D(W) -5.975410 -3.769597 -3.004861 -2.642242 I(0) EX -1.661010 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 I(1) D(EX) -4.669889 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 I(0) IR (Inflation Rate), GOP Growth, M1 Growth, C Growth (Consume Growth), the amount of the ADF test at the 5% significance level less than the corresponding critical value, there is no unit root, is smooth. The W Growth (Wage Growth), EX (Exchange Rate) the amount of ADF test at the 5% significance level is greater than the corresponding critical value, there are unit root is not smooth, but the first-order differential sequence of ADF values are less than 5% significance level the critical value, indicating they do not exist unit root, is a first-order stationary 3.2Granger Causality Tests As the W Growth (Wage Growth), EX (Exchange Rate) is a stable order, so DW respectively, said W Growth (Wage Growth) first-order differential, DEX that EX (Exchange Rate) of the first-order differential, and separately GOP, M1, CONSUME, DW, DEX and IR for Granger Causality Tests, test results shown in Table 2 TABLE 2 Granger Causality Tests Null Hypothesis Obs F-Statistic Prob. GOP does not Granger Cause IR 25 3.61448 0.0334 IR does not Granger Cause GOP 1.99679 0.1506 M1 does not Granger Cause IR 25 13.2070 8.E-05 IR does not Granger Cause M1 0.21912 0.8818 CONSUME does not Granger Cause IR 25 0.40692 0.7499 IR does not Granger Cause CONSUME 0.74334 0.5401 DW does not Granger Cause IR 24 2.36992 0.1025 IR does not Granger Cause DW 5.02768 0.0101 DEX does not Granger Cause IR 24 0.95259 0.4375 IR does not Granger Cause DEX 0.81532 0.5030 According to AIC and th e SC minimum principle to determine the optimal lag order is 3, the corresponding results can be seen GOP and the M1 are the reasons for IR, but CONSUME, W, and EX are not the reasons for IR, indicating GOP and the M1 have an impact on inflation. 4. Summary This paper analyzes the Inflation Rate (IR), GOP Growth (GOP), M1 Growth (M1), Consume Growth (CONSUME), Wage Growth (W), Exchange Rate (EX) the relationship between the use of ADF test and Granger causality test empirical analysis of various factors, analysis found that: First, GOP Growth, M1 Growth ahead of inflation and changes in the movement, so GOP Growth, M1 Growth Inflation in China has a sense of Granger causality; but Consume Growth, Wage Growth, Exchange Rate and inflation causal no significant relationship. Secondly, M1 Growth and Inflation Rate changes in the same direction exists between the relationship and M1 Growth impact on inflation there is a certain lag, which shows inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon.

Robert Frost - A Comparisson Of 3 Poems Essay - 1242 Words

Comparing Frost’s amp;quot;Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Eveningamp;quot;, amp;quot;Birchesamp;quot;, and amp;quot;The Road Not takenamp;quot; Robert Frost was an American poet that first became known after publishing a book in England. He soon came to be one of the best-known and loved American poets ever. He often wrote of the outdoors and the three poems that I will compare are of that amp;quot;outdoorsyamp;quot; type. There are several likenesses and differences in these poems. They each have their own meaning, each represent a separate thing and each tell a different story. However, they are all indicative of Frost’s love of the outdoors, his true enjoyment of nature and his wistfulness at growing old. He seems to look back†¦show more content†¦He knows that this is not a reality for him. Frost also uses the trees in this poem to represent a way to get away from the cares and trials of life on Earth. He talks of getting away and coming back to start over. C limbing amp;quot;toward Heavenamp;quot;. He desires to be free from it all, but then he says that he is afraid that the fates might misunderstand and take him away to never return. This is like most of us today. We want to go to Heaven, but we don’t want to die to get there. In amp;quot;Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Eveningamp;quot;, Frost describes a thick patch of woods that are a long way from anything. He does not go into great detail describing them, leaving that to the readers imagination. He merely describes them as amp;quot;lovely, dark and deepamp;quot;. This lack of detail is to help us focus not so much on all the things that are there, as the things that aren’t. He mentions that the horse must be thinking that this is strange to stop here, with no barn near. The only thing that is nearby is nature. The lake is frozen, the trees and ground are covered with snow. During a snowstorm, sound does not travel very well. It is very muddled and muted. The only sounds that are mentioned in the poem are the bells on the horse’s harness and the wind. So, the rider is stopping to smell the roses. He is taking a break from the world around him, watching these woods fill with snow. Then, he remembers his cares and is off, with miles and miles

Chlorine and Magnesium Lab Introduction Free Essays

iLab, Week # 3 ATOMIC WEIGHT OF MAGNESIUM LAB Introduction The purpose of this lab experiment is to determine the atomic weight of magnesium by measuring the amount of hydrogen gas evolved when hydrochloric acid reacts with magnesium. The reaction is as followed: Mg + 2HCL ? H2 + Mg2+(aq) + 2Cl-(aq) In this experiment there is a one to one relationship between the number of moles of hydrogen gas evolved and the moles of magnesium metal consumed in the reaction. Therefore in the finding of the experiment moles of H2 evolved is equal to the moles of Mg consumed, and atomic weight of Mg is equal to the weight of Mg consumed per moles of H2 evolved. We will write a custom essay sample on Chlorine and Magnesium Lab Introduction or any similar topic only for you Order Now Procedure 1st. Obtain a 600ml beaker, add 300ml of water 2nd. add 30ml of HCl (2M) to the beaker and stir 3rd. add 10mg of Magnesium metal to the beaker 4th. Allow hydrogen gas to evolve, all of the magnesium should be consumed. 6th. Record the amount of hydrogen gas evolved using the chemical property dialog. Observations and Results Moles of hydrogen evolved: 0. 000829g (8. 29 x 10-4)/ 0. 000411 moles, (4. 1 x 10-4) Calculated atomic weight of magnesium: ______________ Atomic weight of Mg = weight of Magnesium/moles of H2 Moles of H2 evolved = moles of Mg consumed Atomic weight of Mg= /0. 000411moles During my observation I noticed that when 10mg of magnesium metal was added to the beaker a shaded area appeared on the bottom of the beaker. When the bubbles stopped and the shaded area in the beaker disappeared it showed that the magnesium has been consumed. Discussion Conclusion Within a few sentences, provide a concluding statement about the results of your laboratory How to cite Chlorine and Magnesium Lab Introduction, Essay examples

Howards End free essay sample

This paper discusses E.M. Forsters `Howards End as a murder mystery and more importantly as an abstract of the English class system. The author states that Howards End` is an Edwardian novel written before the Great War. He continues that the plot is complex but is held together by the country house called Howards End, a metaphor for England itself. The paper discusses that the characters respected the land but not each other. The paper continues to discuss the concept of wealth and compares this book compared to the writings of the American F. Scott Fitzgerald. But it also stands for something larger than simply England, for it represents the ways in which people can be tied to a particular piece of the earth from one generation to the next. The first World War brought to an end many things, and this may have been one of the most significant things that was lost, this sense that our relationship to the land is one of the things that can be counted on to endure from generation to generation. We will write a custom essay sample on Howards End or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Already we see that sense of connection being loosened in this book, but it still endures.